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### Going for 2?

You're down by 14 in a football game with 3 minutes left in a football game. You just scored a touchdown. Your team is bad and only converts 2pt. conversions 40% of the time (most teams average around 45-55%) You should kick an extra point, right?

What do you think? Answer below.

You should NOT. This seems counterintuitive, but mathematically this makes sense. Most teams have around a 40-55% chance at succeeding. No matter what happens, you're hoping for another defensive stop and then another touchdown.

Let's assume the worst case scenario and that your team only gets a 40% conversion rate. Two 1 pt. conversions = a tie, so we'll use that as a baseline. Now if you fail the first 2pt. conversion and succeed at the second, you'll end up with 14pts., which is exactly the same result. Since that would be the exact same result, we can ignore it, because it's the same as kicking two PATs.

Now lets compare the chances of losing versus the chances of winning, if one outweighs the other then we can figure out if the 2 pt. conversion is a better choice.

Now what are the odds of losing? 60% (failing the first 2pt. conv.) x 60% (failing the second 2pt. conv.) = 36% of losing.

Now if you make the first conversion, you win the game, because your second attempt is just a 1pt. attempt (so youâ€™ll get 15pt. total, winning the game versus the 14 pt. deficit). What are the odds of making the 2pt. conversion? It's a given- 40%.

Now 40% is a greater percentage than 36%, so your odds of winning outright outweigh your odds of losing outright.

Basically, you should go for the 2pt. attempt EVEN if your team is below 50% at 2pt. attempts! (As long as your team is above around 39% or so at 2pt. conversions.)